Archbishop of Sydney

The Baby Bust

By + Cardinal George Pell
Archbishop of Sydney
6 March 2005

It never pays to cry wolf. One reason why some don’t seem to take the apocalyptic threat of global warming seriously is that we have heard this sort of thing too many times before.

In the late-1970s and early 1980s, the big scare was the Cold War turning hot and plunging the world into nuclear winter. Earlier, and off and on since, it was overpopulation, with lurid descriptions of universal famine and vicious wars over food and water.

The threat of nuclear winter has come and gone. The interesting question about global warming is not so much whether it is happening, but whether it will last like over-population as a scary story for nervous grown-ups.

The over-population myth is all the more astonishing given that all the while it was being talked about, world population was well established on a route of long-term decline.
 
Fertility rates have halved since 1972, and world population will peak at 9 billion in 2050. After that it will plummet. 

Why are so many countries in population decline?

The free market system has surprised me by the widespread prosperity it has produced. But the free market is hostile to families and children—consider how the weekend is quickly becoming part of the working week for many and no longer a  time for the family.

Half of the world’s people will be in cities in a few years, and this pushes down the birth rate. In the 30 years until 2000, South Korea’s urban population went from 28 to 84 per cent.

Increasing education, which is obviously a clear bonus, as well as later marriages, easier divorce, and the widespread use of contraception (by 62 per cent of couples in child-bearing years) have all contributed to population decline.

So has the catastrophic spread of HIV, especially in Africa and India. In parts of Africa the population of child-bearing age has been slashed, often leaving only the very young and the very old. We are still to come to grips with what this disaster means.

Abortion has also taken its toll. It has been the greatest cause of African-American deaths in the United States since 1973. 11.2 million African-Americans have been aborted, compared to just under 293,000 lost to AIDS and 306,000 lost to violence. The biggest cause of black deaths after abortion is heart disease, with 2.26 million deaths.

The abortion rate is appallingly high in countries like China, with its awful one-child policy. Ex-communist countries also face this problem, along with others.

Communism poisoned the hearts of many and the environment everywhere. Public health in Russia is so bad that life-expectancy, as well as fertility, is rapidly declining. Alcoholism and industrial pollution have also played a part Russia, especially among men.

Population decline will change everything about our world. More on this next week.