Archbishop of Sydney

Ageing

By + Cardinal George Pell
Archbishop of Sydney
5/11/2006

Finland and Japan do not seem to have much in common, except that they are two of the oldest societies in the world (with Italy).  Also with China they are ageing faster than all other countries.

As standards of health and hygiene improved many people were living longer.  This is a blessing and in 1864 France was the first country where 7% of its people survived until 65.  The percentage rise in elderly people increases of course when fewer babies are being born.

Today eight major countries are “aged” societies with 14% of the population over 65 years of age and next year Japan will become the first “super-aged” society with 21% over 65, to be followed by Italy in 2010 and Finland in 2017.

In most parts of the world a baby boom occurred after the Second World War and as this tsunami of baby boomers now moves into retirement there are no waves to follow.

China is ageing faster than any country except Japan not merely because of improved living conditions but because of their coercive one child policy.  Most countries in the Western world grew rich before they became old, but many parts of China and India will grow old before their societies become rich.

Australia is facing similar problems, although we have only about 2,000,000 people, approximately 10%, over 65 years now, which will rise to one quarter of the population in 2045.

No one is lamenting that we are living longer and no one wants to return to the days of the Roman Empire when the average longevity was 2.2 years!  Neither are there general problems today with a shortage of resources.  Because the birth rate in every Western society has fallen below replacement rate, we will not have sufficient workers to produce the tax revenues to support the elderly, without other changes.

This background explains why the Federal Treasurer is regularly proclaiming that “demography is destiny” and urging couples to have one baby for mum, one for dad and one for the country.  We should also add one for the Church!

These changes will place new pressures on Australian society and especially on the principle of a fair go for all, although many governments have not moved as effectively as the Australian government to confront the future.

Just as night follows day, more personal savings will be required.  By world standards Australians are big spenders and poor savers, so that many could outlive their savings.

Early retirements will be discouraged and become rarer, while an increasing number will be working, at least part-time, after they are 65.  Governments will now have to find funds, perhaps from extra taxes or cut back services.

Grey power too will rise and often decide which party rules.  Young and old, workers and retirees will need a lot of wisdom and a genuine sense of solidarity and community to cope.